Equity Markets: Sharp Second Quarter Rebound Instills Strong Sense of Déjà Vu Global equity markets staged a remarkable turnaround in the second quarter, more than reversing the 9% S&P 500 pullback that had occurred from late January to late March. On top of another bout of investor hesitation about the AI trade, war in Iran had sent energy costs higher,…
Equity Markets: A Tug-of-War Between Innovation and Geopolitics Most global equity indices retreated in the first quarter, with the S&P 500 declining 8.9% from its January 27th all-time high through March 30th. While such dips are not comfortable, the pullback follows a period of strength, with all indices we report on below still up significantly over the last twelve months….
Global equity markets finished the fourth quarter higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.7% for the quarter and 17.9% for the year. Domestically, strong corporate earnings and additional interest rate cuts supported the advance, though volatility surfaced as investors contended with delayed economic data following the government shutdown and renewed concerns about a possible bubble in the AI-trade. As illustrated…
Global equity markets advanced steadily through the third quarter, supported by a combination of constructive policy developments, resilient economic fundamentals, and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings results. A key tailwind was the improvement in trade policy visibility. The U.S. secured agreements with several trading partners on terms that were considerably less restrictive than initially anticipated, easing concerns about a protracted global trade…